Recently, the relevant person in charge of the General Administration of Customs said that the import volume of pork and beef in the first three quarters of this year increased significantly. Imported pork was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 43.6%; imported beef was 1.132 million tons, an increase of 53.4%. Under the current tight supply of pork, what is the import situation of pork in China? What effect will it have on price? The reporter interviewed Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, and Li Mengxi, a monitoring and early warning analyst for the pork industry chain of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Fluctuations in domestic supply and a sharp fall in pork prices at home and abroad are the main reasons for the continued increase in imports.
”China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of pigs, and the import of pig products continues to increase.” Zhu Zengyong said that domestic supply fluctuations and large-scale upside down of domestic and international pork prices are the main reasons for the continued increase in imports. Before 2006, the total import volume of raw pig products was below 300,000 tons. After increasing to 473,100 tons in 2007, it began to increase steadily. By 2016, it reached 3,112,100 tons, a record high. In 2017 and 2018, it was more obvious than the peak import period. The decline was 2,496,600 tons and 2,154,400 tons respectively. China’s pig products are mainly imported from pig chop and pork. Since 2000, a total of 19.37 million tons of pig products have been imported, of which pork imports accounted for 43.3%.
“Because of the gap between domestic supply and demand and the cost of pig breeding in major exporting countries in Europe and America, China began to become a net importer of pork in 2008 and became the world’s largest pork importer in 2016.” Agriculture and Rural Ministry pork industry chain monitoring and early warning analyst Li Mengxi analysis. From 2000 to 2007, China’s pork trade maintained a net export. In 2008, imports continued to exceed the export volume for 11 consecutive years. Imports increased from 373,300 tons to 1.62 million tons in 2016. In 2017 and 2018, pork imports showed a high level and remained stable. The import volume was 1,216,800 tons and 1,192,800 tons respectively.
Zhu Zengyong said that China’s pork imports accounted for about 2% to 3% of domestic pork production. In terms of price, the price of imported pork CIF has a large price difference with the domestic market price. In 2009, most of the years, the average price of imported pork at the exchange rate of the current year and the domestic price of white meat above the domestic scale (imported pork is divided into two parts). Or the tetrad corpus is the main one. In most years, the price difference is more than 8 yuan per kilogram, of which 2011 and 2016 are as high as 11.77 yuan and 11.37 yuan respectively.
Expanding pork and other varieties of meat imports is inevitable, and it will play a certain role in the current increase in pig prices.
The source of pork imports accounts for 2/3 of the EU, and the market share of South American countries has increased rapidly in recent years, and the import market has diversified. From 2008 to 2018, China imported 4.76 million tons of pork from the EU, accounting for 61.8% of the total imports, mainly from Germany, Spain and Denmark. The cumulative imports accounted for 15.4%, 17.5% and 10.9% of the total imports; North America is The second largest source of imports, the cumulative imports from the United States and Canada accounted for 19.1% and 11.8% of the total imports, respectively. In the United States only in 2008 and 2011 domestic pork prices accounted for a relatively large proportion of pork exports, accounting for 50% % up and down; South American countries became one of the main sources of imports in 2016. Before 2015, South American imports of pork accounted for less than 5%. Brazil and Chile have continued to increase pork exports since 2016, especially in Brazil. In 2018, imports reached 1,500,100 tons, surpassing the United States, accounting for 12.6% of imports in 2018. The proportion of pork in South America reached 16.3%.
Li Mengxi said that from the different months of the first half of this year, domestic pig prices began to rebound significantly in February. Imports of pork began to increase significantly in April. Imports in April reached 136,500 tons, up 24% year-on-year, and in May and June respectively. 18.74 million tons and 160,500 tons, up 62.6% and 62.8% year-on-year respectively. The CIF price of pork imports began to increase from May to the same period of the previous year, and reached 2,158 US dollars/ton in June, up 26% year-on-year. From March 11.61 yuan / kg rose to 14.89 yuan / kg in June, an increase of 28.2%.
“After two consecutive months of significant increase, pork prices have been at historically high levels in August, and the demand for increased imports of pork products to regulate the domestic market has further increased. From past experience, the lack of pigs will inevitably lead to a large number of Import, so it is inevitable to expand the import of pork and other varieties of meat, and also play a certain role in the rise of pork prices at this stage.” Zhu Zengyong said.
The main source of imports can increase domestically, and the available pork for next year will increase further.
“The pork trade in the international market does not support a sharp increase in pork imports, but it is expected to exceed the import level in 2016.” Zhu Zengyong said that according to different statistics, the global pork export trade is between 8 million and 9 million tons. In the short term, EU pork prices in the main import markets are at a relatively high level, which restricts pork imports to a certain extent, and the linkage between domestic and foreign markets will be significantly improved. Judging from the demand for pork imports from other countries in the international market, the main pork importing countries, Japan and Mexico, despite the increase in overall pork import demand, the absolute increase is not large, and the demand is increasing below 100,000 tons. Russia’s domestic production capacity has increased significantly, and import demand has been The downward trend, other countries are relatively stable; from the perspective of export markets, the EU’s pork production in 2019 is steadily decreasing, and the possibility of a large increase is relatively small. Brazil’s pork exports to China will increase significantly. Therefore, in general, the short-term international market can supplement the surplus of about 500,000 tons, that is, the pork that China can import in 2019 is about 1.7 million tons. China’s pork import demand will drive global pork prices to pick up. As global pork prices rise, it will stimulate South America and the EU, Canada, the United States and other major import sources to increase domestic production. Pork for import will increase further in 2020. .
Post time: Nov-13-2019